For the first time in this cycle, the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) has signaled that the war on inflation is won. In its December meeting, the CBK slashed the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 9%—marking its ninth consecutive cut (wait, ninth? Yes, the easing cycle is accelerating).

Governor Kamau Thugge cited "anchored inflation" (now at 4.5%) and a stable shilling as the green light to prioritize growth. The goal is explicit: stimulate private sector lending.

Why This Matters

The "Tight Money" Era is Ending: For two years, African founders have suffocated under 15-20% interest rates. Kenya is leading the way out. If you’re a Nairobi-based founder, your cost of capital just dropped. This signals that 2026 will be a "Growth" year, not a "Survival" year.

Banks Have No Excuse: With the risk-free rate dropping, commercial banks (KCB, Equity) are under pressure to lower their lending rates. We expect a flood of cheaper credit for SMEs and mortgage products in Q1 2026.

Founder Action:

The numbers don't lie. New data from DealMakers Africa reveals that Mauritius has displaced Nigeria as the #1 destination for Private Equity (PE) deal value in the first nine months of 2025.

While Nigeria recorded more volume (45 deals), the value collapsed to $987.5M. Meanwhile, Mauritius attracted $1.25 billion across just six deals—a 311% surge.

Why This Matters: Capital seeks safety. Investors are voting with their wallets, choosing the tax certainty and legal stability of Mauritius over the volatility of Nigeria. The "Delaware -> Mauritius -> OpCo" structure is no longer just a recommendation; it’s the standard. If you want to raise big tickets ($50M+), you can't just be a Nigerian company anymore. You need a Mauritius address.

While SaaS startups struggle to raise Series A, off-grid solar giant Sun King just closed a massive $156 million securitisation deal. This is the largest such transaction in Sub-Saharan Africa outside of South Africa.

Why This Matters: It validates the "Asset-Backed" model. Sun King isn't selling software; they are selling power. By securitising their future receivables (customer payments), they accessed debt markets closed to pure tech players. Lesson: If you have predictable, recurring revenue from real assets, you don't need VCs. You can go to the debt markets.

The dust is settling on the G20 Summit in Johannesburg, and the biggest story was who wasn't there. The United States' decision to skip the event (sending a lower-level delegation instead) has officially fractured the group.

Analysts are calling it the start of a "G7 vs. The Rest" dynamic. Without the US, the Joburg summit focused heavily on Global South priorities (debt relief, critical minerals), but lacked the enforcement power of the world's biggest economy.

Founder Takeaway: The "Global Village" is closed. We are entering a multipolar world where you might need different compliance stacks for Western and non-Western markets.

Despite the "uninvestable" narrative, the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) has seen trading surge 115% in 2025, with foreign investors returning as net buyers for the first time since the crisis began.

Why: The devaluation is painful for locals, but it made Nigerian assets incredibly cheap for foreigners holding dollars. Smart money is buying the banks and telcos at a discount. Lesson: Sentiment is not data. While Twitter panics, Wall Street buys.

Look at today's winners:

There is no AI hype here. No crypto schemes. Just fundamental services: Energy, Law, and Capital.

As we move into 2026, the "shiny object" era of African tech is dead. The founders raising $156M aren't building "Uber for Dog Walking"—they are building utility infrastructure. The countries attracting $1.25B aren't promising "potential"—they are promising legal certainty.

The market is rewarding predictability.

If you are building something "boring" that people actually need (power, logistics, credit), congratulations. You are the new cool.

Build accordingly.

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